Martingale Calculator: When the Ladder Breaks
Enter a first bet, the raise after a loss, your chance and payout, and the money you can spare. You get the ladder rung by rung, the point where it breaks, how long that usually takes and the exact average cost.
We could not open any game on BDG Win, so we do not know which bets it accepts, how large a bet may be or what a win pays. The tool takes those from you. It opens on a made-up two-way bet: a ₹20 first bet, doubling after every loss, a 50% chance of winning, a payout of 1.95×, ₹2,000 set aside and 60 rounds. The Start from buttons load other plans, such as tripling after a loss or a limit on the biggest bet.
A cycle is one run of bets, from your first bet until the first win. The plan breaks at the first rung you can no longer afford, and the whole cycle is then lost.
The ladder, rupee by rupee
Each bet is double the one before. The last column is what a win on that bet leaves you with after paying back everything staked so far.
| Bet number | Bet size | Staked so far | Net if this bet wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ₹20 | ₹20 | +₹19 |
| 2 | ₹40 | ₹60 | +₹18 |
| 3 | ₹80 | ₹140 | +₹16 |
| 4 | ₹160 | ₹300 | +₹12 |
| 5 | ₹320 | ₹620 | +₹4 |
| 6 | ₹640 | ₹1,260 | −₹12 |
A seventh bet, ₹1,280, is more than the ₹740 left, so ₹2,000 covers six losses in a row. Look at the last column. At exactly 2× every win would net +₹20. At 1.95× the shortfall grows as the ladder climbs, and a win on the sixth bet returns ₹1,248 against ₹1,260 staked: a win that still loses ₹12. A break costs ₹1,260, which is 63 times the ₹20 first bet.
How soon it breaks
The ladder breaks when six losses come in a row. For one cycle that is 1 in 64 (1.56%), which sounds rare, but cycles repeat every couple of rounds.
| Rounds played | Chance it has broken by then | Time at 30 seconds a round |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 4.69% | 5 minutes |
| 50 | 31.5% | 25 minutes |
| 60 | 36.9% | 30 minutes |
| 100 | 54.6% | 50 minutes |
| 250 | 86.8% | 2 hours 5 minutes |
| 500 | 98.3% | 4 hours 10 minutes |
The middle plan lasts 89 rounds: half break sooner. The average wait is 126 rounds. At 30 seconds a round, that is about 45 minutes for the middle plan and about an hour on average. Press Run pretend sessions and the tool plays 1,000 of them: the number that broke should land near 369, the exact 36.9%.
What it costs on average
Each bet loses the same 2.50% of its stake on average. All the plan decides is how much gets staked. Over 60 rounds, stopping at a break, it stakes ₹2,931 on average, against ₹1,200 for flat ₹20 bets, so the average result is −₹73.27 against −₹30.
More money buys fewer breaks and a worse average. ₹5,100 covers 8 losses and breaks in 10.2% of 60-round sessions, but the average result falls to −₹110.39. ₹10,220 covers 9 losses and breaks in 5.1%, with an average of −₹125.79.
Raising by less than double
Raise by 1.5× instead and ₹2,000 covers 9 losses. But at 1.95× a win stops paying back everything staked from the third bet on: bet 3 nets −₹7.25 and bet 9 nets −₹498.21. A gentler ladder reaches further, but only the first two of its nine bets net a gain when they win.
On the bet screen
- A biggest bet. With a ₹320 cap and plenty of money, the ladder still ends after 5 bets, because the sixth (₹640) is not allowed. A break loses ₹620 and happens in 3.13% of cycles and 62.3% of 60-round sessions.
- The payout. Under 2×, every ladder has a bet where a win stops covering the losses before it.
- A fee. It comes off each stake, so a win returns less. The box is under More settings, beside the biggest-bet box.
What the tool leaves out
The tool treats every round as separate, so a win is no more likely after six losses than after none. It has no knowledge of any game’s rules or limits: the chance, payout and cap come from you. The prediction simulator tests doubling on random rounds beside flat bets, and the big small guide shows what chasing a loss with doubling costs on a streak. Set a limit first with the session budget, price an hour of other bets with the loss calculator, and test a record of your own with the win rate calculator. If stopping has become hard once you start doubling up, Tele-MANAS 14416: free, confidential mental-health support, open every hour. The rest of the free tools are one page away.
Common questions
How much money does a ₹20 doubling plan need for eight losses in a row?
₹5,100, because the bets run ₹20, ₹40, ₹80, ₹160, ₹320, ₹640, ₹1,280 and ₹2,560. Each extra loss you want to cover roughly doubles the money: ten losses need ₹20,460 and twelve need ₹81,900.
Can a win lose money in a raise-after-a-loss plan?
Yes, when the payout is under 2×. At 1.95× with a ₹20 first bet and doubling, a win on the sixth bet returns ₹1,248 against ₹1,260 staked. If you raise by 1.5× instead, a win on the third bet already nets −₹7.25.
How long does a doubling plan last if rounds take 30 seconds?
With six bets in the ladder and a 50% chance of winning, half of all plans have broken by round 89, which is about 45 minutes. The average wait is 126 rounds, about an hour. A lower chance of winning shortens both.
What does a biggest-bet limit do to a doubling plan?
It stops the ladder early, whatever your money. With a ₹320 cap the ladder has 5 bets, so a cycle breaks 1 time in 32 instead of 1 in 64, but a break costs ₹620 and not ₹1,260. Look for a limit on the bet screen before you set money aside.
Do six losses in a row make a win more likely?
No. Each round is drawn fresh, so a win has the same chance after six losses as after none. At a 50% chance, six losses in a row turn up somewhere in 60 rounds 36.9% of the time, which is how often the opening plan breaks. A run like that is normal and is not a signal.
Does a doubling plan change what a session costs on average?
Yes, it raises it. The average result is minus the game’s share of the money staked, and the plan stakes more. In the opening example it stakes ₹2,931 on average over 60 rounds against ₹1,200 for flat ₹20 bets, so the average result is −₹73.27 against −₹30.